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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Geopolitik
  3. US x Russia military clash by...?
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

0.8% (24h)One-OffGeopolitikRussia / Ukraine6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
December 31,
December 31, 5%-0.8%
Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat

89 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

48.783,9 €

Liquidität

51.219,4 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

5.0% / 5.2%

Spread

4.0%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

-0.9%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

28. Mai 25, 22:1631. Dez. 26, 12:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
December 31
December 31
0%
January 31
January 31
0%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

December 31,5%

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Verwandte Märkte

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

48.393,8 €
Ja: 2%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

16.822,6 €
December 31: 46%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

14.821,1 €
Ja: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

129,9 €
Ja: 19%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

116,9 €
USA: 45.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

65 €
Ja: 13.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%

Verwandte Nachrichten

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Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.