Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 23.07.2026, 16:00 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseMay 31 0%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vorgestern
Veraltet16. Mai 26, 16:1431. Dez. 26, 23:59
Trends
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Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
October 3114%
Plattformen vergleichen· December 31
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
1.0%5Mon
-1.0%25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen796.763,7 €
24h-Volumen7200 €
POLYMARKETAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
4.5%5Mon
-1.0%36%
-4.5%19%
-2.0%8%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen5 Mio. €
24h-Volumen54.274,3 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinkavor 3 Tagen
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinkavor 3 Tagen$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3vor 21 Tagen
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3vor 21 Tagen$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedstavor 26 Tagen
POLYMARKETNonedstavor 26 TagenVolumentrend
$6018. Juli4T Daten23. Juli
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.