FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 17:14 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
December 31 22%
December 31 22%Marktqualitat
26 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1600,3 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
3
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWill Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
Manifold MarketsWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This set of markets predicts whether Hamas will officially announce that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip.
- Each market below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve "Yes" (an announcement made before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip on or before the market's deadline.
- For the purposes of this event, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a certain region) qualify as long as they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
- Only official announcements qualify — for example, by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 9%
- Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · End of 2026 10%