Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet3. Jan. 26, 03:11 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
FutuurWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
FutuurRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- The Trump peace plan calls for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to surrender their weapons to an international peacekeeping force, with the second phase explicitly stipulating that Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone.
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms that Hamas has verifiably surrendered a substantial majority of its weapons arsenal (including heavy weapons, rockets, and small arms) to an international force or third party, with independent verification of the disarmament.
- This includes destruction of weapons caches and tunnel infrastructure used for weapons storage or manufacturing.
- This market resolves NO if Hamas retains operational control of significant weapons stockpiles, continues active weapons manufacturing, or refuses to participate in verified disarmament by year-end 2026.
- A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10, 2025.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? entschieden?
- Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria