Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
PolitikOne-OffMiddle EastGeopolitik4MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 56.4%
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet4. Nov. 23, 09:58 UTC7. Jan. 27, 12:59 UTC
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?
KalshiBinyamin Netanyahu still Prime Minister of Israel through the end of 2026?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.
- The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war no longer saying "status: ongoing" in the infobox.
- This includes the status being changed to indicate the war transitioning into a frozen conflict, which Wikipedia tends to do when conflicts are no longer active but never officially ended: the war will be considered "over" for the purposes of this question if that happens.
- In the case of Wikipedia listing the war as no longer "ongoing", I'll wait some time to ensure the change is not reverted, and for any edit war to conclude.
- Then I'll resolve the market based on whether Netanyahu was Prime Minister at the time the change appeared to become final.
- I reserve the right to use a more sensible definition if this turns out to be a bad one, but the spirit is to include both official and de facto ends to the war, whilst deferring to a fairly reliable third-party information aggregator like Wikipedia.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 56% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? entschieden?
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? soll am 7. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.