base

December 31, 2027

66%

June 30, 2027

+1.5%51%

December 31, 2026

+0.5%13%

+3 extra uitkomsten

$500M

-1.5%64%

$1B

-3.5%62%

$2B

-8.5%52%

+7 extra uitkomsten

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

1%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Neither by close date

-7.9%81.6%

China invades Taiwan first

+5.5%11.9%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

+2.3%5.9%

+1 extra uitkomsten

No 512gb ram variant of the M5 studio will be released

32.7%

$12,000-$13,999

24.7%

$14,000-$15,999

14%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 extra uitkomsten

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

79%

+15 extra uitkomsten

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

91.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+19 extra uitkomsten

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

+7.0%99%

+6 extra uitkomsten

Other

+0.4%25.1%

Menlo Park, CA

+0.3%16.5%

Stanford, CA

+0.2%15.4%

+5 extra uitkomsten

Anthropic

+0.8%32.8%

OpenAI

+0.6%25.3%

Google

-1.7%24%

+4 extra uitkomsten

4.00%

+6.9%22.2%

3.75%

-6.7%15.8%

4.25%

+8.0%12.6%

+8 extra uitkomsten