base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

0.1 pt (24u)1j

December 31, 2027

+6.5pt56.8%

June 30, 2027

34.2%

December 31, 2026

8.1%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Hoge kwaliteit (82)Strakke spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 7,9 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 90,7K

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$500M

59%

$1B

-1.0pt49%

$2B

43%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Gemiddelde kwaliteit (67)Strakke spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 749,4K

24u volumeUS$ 192,3

POLYMARKET

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Nee

94.4%

5.6%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling55 voorspellersType: binary

21 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

4mnd

5–7 wins

40.2%

8-9 wins

30.2%

10-11 wins

13.2%

+2 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling8 voorspellersType: multiple choice

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

63.9%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling74 voorspellersType: multiple choice

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 2035

44.2%

2035 - 2045

24.1%

2045 - 2060

20.8%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling58 voorspellersType: multiple choice

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

111 - 120

29.4%

121 - 125

22.3%

101 - 110

14.1%

+6 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling11 voorspellersType: multiple choice

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

3mnd

United States

11.7%

France

5.5%

Canada

4.5%

+4 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling19 voorspellersType: multiple choice

6 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

2.00% to 2.75%

21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%

21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%

16.5%

+4 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling4 voorspellersType: multiple choice

9 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius

46.9%

United Kingdom

25.7%

United States

10%

+5 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling9 voorspellersType: multiple choice

13 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

2100

28.5%

2075

21.7%

2050

14%

+9 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling32 voorspellersType: multiple choice

14 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

67.8%

Nee

32.2%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling15 voorspellersType: binary

8 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI

75.5%

Anthropic

55%

Google (DeepMind)

35%

+10 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling11 voorspellersType: multiple choice

21 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

3mnd

Nee

53%

47%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling15 voorspellersType: binary

14 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

2027

98.2%

2028

98%

2029

97.6%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling11 voorspellersType: multiple choice

11 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

3mnd

Nee

98.1%

1.9%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling49 voorspellersType: binary

21 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

3mnd

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

92.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+18 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling145 voorspellersType: multiple choice

14 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

Nee

90%

10%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling46 voorspellersType: binary

17 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

3mnd

101-150

39.3%

151-200

31.5%

201-250

8.4%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling49 voorspellersType: multiple choice

20 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

3mnd

4.00%

41%

3.75%

38.6%

4.25%

6.7%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling5 voorspellersType: multiple choice

16 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

3mnd

Neither by close date

91.3%

China invades Taiwan first

6.7%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

1.7%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling37 voorspellersType: multiple choice

18 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling32 voorspellersType: multiple choice

5 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Anthropic

40.3%

OpenAI

27.8%

Google

13.8%

+4 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling17 voorspellersType: multiple choice

21 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will I live in October 2026?

21d

Menlo Park, CA

27.8%

Stanford, CA

13.2%

Berkeley, CA

13.1%

+5 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling13 voorspellersType: multiple choice

13 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

4.00%

22.2%

3.75%

15.8%

4.25%

12.6%

+8 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: multiple choice

14 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

0.2 pt (24u)3mnd

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling26 voorspellersType: multiple choice

18 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

100%

+6 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling10 voorspellersType: multiple choice

8 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

6.6 pt (24u)3mnd

$12,000-$13,999

+6.6pt31.3%

$14,000-$15,999

+3.5pt17.6%

$10,000-$11,999

+3.2pt16.4%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling10 voorspellersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

3mnd

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

+1 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling78 voorspellersType: multiple choice

15 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Elizabeth Warren

85%

John Fetterman

15%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling8 voorspellersType: multiple choice

17 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

73.9%

+15 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling102 voorspellersType: multiple choice

20 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Gerelateerde Crypto-assets

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Where will I live in October 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")