Base

$2B+0.5pt39%

$500M-3.0pt39%

$1B38%

+7 extra uitkomsten

December 31, 202741%

June 30, 202720%

December 31, 20265%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Menlo Park, CA72.2%

Stanford, CA5.3%

Berkeley, CA5.2%

+5 extra uitkomsten

70+100%

80+100%

90+100%

+7 extra uitkomsten

5–7 wins40.2%

8-9 wins30.2%

10-11 wins13.2%

+2 extra uitkomsten

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Before 203544.2%

2035 - 204524.1%

2045 - 206020.8%

+3 extra uitkomsten

111 - 12029.4%

121 - 12522.3%

101 - 11014.1%

+6 extra uitkomsten

United States11.7%

France5.5%

Canada4.5%

+4 extra uitkomsten

2.00% to 2.75%21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%16.5%

+4 extra uitkomsten

Mauritius46.9%

United Kingdom25.7%

United States10%

+5 extra uitkomsten

210028.5%

207521.7%

205014%

+9 extra uitkomsten

OpenAI75.5%

Anthropic55%

Google (DeepMind)35%

+10 extra uitkomsten

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY97%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.49%

Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.37.5%

+18 extra uitkomsten

101-15093.8%

50-1003.4%

151-2001.2%

+7 extra uitkomsten

4.00%43.2%

3.75%25.5%

4.25%19.2%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Neither by close date92%

China invades Taiwan first6%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first1.7%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Pete Buttigieg59.3%

Josh Shapiro59.1%

Raphael Warnock58.1%

+21 extra uitkomsten

Anthropic40.3%

OpenAI27.8%

Google13.8%

+4 extra uitkomsten

4.00%18%

4.25%17.1%

3.75%13%

+8 extra uitkomsten

5.4100%

5.5100%

5.6100%

+6 extra uitkomsten

$12,000-$13,99932.2%

$14,000-$15,99918.1%

$10,000-$11,99916.9%

+3 extra uitkomsten

($71, $91]96.8%

More than $911.9%

[$61, $71]1%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Any American receives it by end 2025100%

Any American receives it by end 2026100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income70.9%

+15 extra uitkomsten