Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100? 79.6%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
74
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd14 okt 25, 19:05 UTC1 jan 30, 19:01 UTC
Trends
0%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegels
I recently started looking for a more serious job, and I received two strong job offers that I now have to choose between.
- I'm seriously conflicted, so obviously I should turn to conditional prediction markets to make my decision for me.
- The first job, which I will refer to as "Genesis", (not their real name), is a support role for a market trading firm.
- Some coding, some research, helping design trading strategies, etc. Just doing whatever I'm needed for across several fields.
- The second job, which I will refer to as "Penguin", (not their real name either), is systems design work for a payment security firm.
- Some coding, but more high level pentesting-adjacent stuff; thinking about how their systems could be defeated and coming up with countermeasures.
Open markten
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 202754.3%
- June 30, 202736.2%
- December 31, 20268.6%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 16,2K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-0.5pt50%
- $2B43%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 644,8K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 58,7K
- 24u volume
- € 9,5K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- United States11.7%
- France5.5%
- Canada4.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,6K
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- 2.00% to 2.75%21.8%
- 3.00% to 3.75%21.8%
- 4.00% to 4.75%16.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 203,9
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- Mauritius46.9%
- United Kingdom25.7%
- United States10%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3K
- 24u volume
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
- Will there be a moon base by 2030?
- How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]?
- Manifold Markets prijst If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100? op 80% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy] afgewikkeld?
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy] wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I recently started looking for a more serious job, and I received two strong job offers that I now have to choose between.