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Anthropic 40.3%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 21 uur geleden
Verouderd29 aug 24, 15:58 UTC31 dec 30, 18:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.
- This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
- If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)
Open markten
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+6.0pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 77,9K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-1.0pt49%
- $2B43%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 644,1K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 58,6K
- 24u volume
- € 389,7
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Totaal volume
- € 80K
- 24u volume
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 97,1
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"??
- Manifold Markets prijst Anthropic op 40% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? afgewikkeld?
- Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.