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OpenAI 75.5%Koploper van 13 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+27.8 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd8 apr 26, 19:16 UTC31 dec 00, 20:12 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
Manifold MarketsIn 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegels
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
Open markten
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 202754.3%
- June 30, 202736.2%
- December 31, 20268.6%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 6,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 16,2K
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-0.5pt50%
- $2B43%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 644,8K
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 58,7K
- 24u volume
- € 9,5K
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- United States11.7%
- France5.5%
- Canada4.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,6K
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- 2.00% to 2.75%21.8%
- 3.00% to 3.75%21.8%
- 4.00% to 4.75%16.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 203,9
- 24u volume
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- Mauritius46.9%
- United Kingdom25.7%
- United States10%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3K
- 24u volume
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
- Will there be a moon base by 2030?
- How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027
- Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- Manifold Markets prijst OpenAI op 76% per 7 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? afgewikkeld?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Core Resolution Criteria