AI | Voorspellingsmarkten

Which company has best AI model end of June?

17d

Anthropic

+3.4%89%

Google

-1.0%10%

OpenAI

-0.4%3%

+16 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 13,5 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 189,7K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0%6mnd

↑$1.0T

+2.4%100%

↑$1.1T

+1.3%96%

↑$1.25T

+1.0%90%

+10 extra uitkomsten

89 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 1,5 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 107,1K

POLYMARKET

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

17d

Anthropic

-1.5%91%

Google

OpenAI

+0.3%2%

+16 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 1,7 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 20,3K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.3%6mnd

December

+4.5%49%

September 30,

+1.0%12%

August

+1.9%5%

+3 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 2 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 18,6K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

17d

No IPO by June 30, 2026

99%

<100B

100–200B

+4 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 1,7 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 5,1K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31,

90%

October 31,

69%

September 30,

16%

+3 extra uitkomsten

89 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 272,3K

24u volumeUS$ 6,3K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

1mnd

Anthropic

81%

Google

-0.3%9%

OpenAI

-0.2%7%

+23 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 93,2K

24u volumeUS$ 6,2K

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

2.7%1mnd

July 31

-1.1%96%

June 30

+3.0%92%

June 23

-2.0%54%

+6 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 889,2K

24u volumeUS$ 19K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.3%17d

Anthropic

-0.1%96%

OpenAI

-0.1%3%

xAI

+0.3%1%

+26 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 65,8K

24u volumeUS$ 7,1K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

6.0%6mnd

No IPO by December 31, 2026

-6.0%51%

750B–1T

-0.1%13%

1T–1.25T

+1.6%12%

+4 extra uitkomsten

89 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 1,8 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 5,6K

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

4.0%6mnd

+0.0%8%

Nee

-0.0%92%

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 1 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 12,6K

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

15.5%6mnd

↑$900B

89%

↑$1.0T

+1.0%81%

↑$1.25T

+10.0%79%

+12 extra uitkomsten

89 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 623,5K

24u volumeUS$ 9,5K

POLYMARKET

Best AI model on June 13?

7.1%4u

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

+7.1%88%

Other

-9.4%9%

claude-opus-4-6

-0.1%0%

+3 extra uitkomsten

89 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 158,9K

24u volumeUS$ 28,5K

POLYMARKET

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

17d

Anthropic

-1.0%87%

Google

+4.5%11%

OpenAI

+0.7%3%

+16 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 596,4K

24u volumeUS$ 4,2K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.7%1j

600B+

+1.5%95%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

300–400B

+0.3%1%

+4 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 356,9K

24u volumeUS$ 2,8K

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

4.0%17d

June 23

+7.5%27%

No release by June 30

-0.3%18%

June 30

14%

+27 extra uitkomsten

77 • Hoge kwaliteitSpread onbekendHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 109,2K

24u volumeUS$ 5,6K

POLYMARKET

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

7.0%15d

June 22–June 28

-0.4%56%

June 15–June 21

+7.0%30%

Not released by June 28

-6.1%12%

+5 extra uitkomsten

89 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 148,8K

24u volumeUS$ 5,9K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

1.5%17d

Anthropic

+1.5%89%

Google

OpenAI

-0.9%2%

+26 extra uitkomsten

91 • Hoge kwaliteitStrakke spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 98K

24u volumeUS$ 4,3K

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

3.7%17d

Alibaba

-3.0%80%

Z.ai

+2.0%18%

Moonshot

+3.7%5%

+22 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 40,8K

24u volumeUS$ 6,7K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

5.5%1j

$2.5–$2.75T

-0.5%16%

$1.25–$1.5T

-0.5%16%

<$1.25T

+5.5%14%

+7 extra uitkomsten

73 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 19,3K

24u volumeUS$ 10,7K

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

0.1%17d

Anthropic

+77.0%100%

OpenAI

+1.8%5%

DeepSeek

+8 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 1,6 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 1,7K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

4.0%18d

↑ $925B

+9.9%100%

↑ $1.0T

+12.6%100%

↑ $975B

+1.3%100%

+9 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 377,8K

24u volumeUS$ 3,8K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

0.3%17d

Google

-7.0%49%

Anthropic

+2.0%29%

OpenAI

+3.0%17%

+26 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 202,3K

24u volumeUS$ 3,6K

POLYMARKET

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

6mnd

<30%

0.9%

30-40%

0.9%

40-50%

0.9%

+5 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling38 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 94,5K

24u volumeUS$ 44,4K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

5.0%18d

↑$850B

-14.5%39%

↓$800B

+1.3%31%

↑$875B

-4.0%20%

+9 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 197,8K

24u volumeUS$ 1,5K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.1%1j

1.8T+

-0.5%48%

1.2–1.5T

-0.5%18%

1.5–1.8T

-0.1%18%

+4 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 147,7K

24u volumeUS$ 1,1K

POLYMARKET

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

19d

Perplexity

3.4%

Anthropic

1.1%

Mistral

2.9%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling48 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 151,9K

24u volumeUS$ 1,3K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

3.7%6mnd

+0.0%98%

Nee

-0.0%2%

91 • Hoge kwaliteitStrakke spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 63,8K

24u volumeUS$ 4,4K

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

2.0%1mnd

July 31

-1.4%95%

June 30

84%

June 26

+0.5%68%

+3 extra uitkomsten

61 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 51,1K

24u volumeUS$ 6,8K

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by...?

3.0%6mnd

2026

-3.0%22%

2025

+0.1%0%

March 31, 2026

-0.1%0%

68 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitGematigde spreadGemiddelde liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 2,9 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 2K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

1.5%1mnd

Anthropic

-1.5%65%

Google

+7.0%20%

OpenAI

-3.0%7%

+23 extra uitkomsten

80 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 7,6K

24u volumeUS$ 4,8K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

10.0%1mnd

Anthropic

-10.0%66%

Google

+12.0%22%

OpenAI

+2.0%6%

+23 extra uitkomsten

80 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 8,8K

24u volumeUS$ 3,1K

POLYMARKET

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Trump bans abortion nationwide

4.4%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

1.6%

+248 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1,631 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 1 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 479,2

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

5.0%17d

30%+

+0.7%100%

35%+

+2.6%100%

45%+

-6.5%58%

+2 extra uitkomsten

52 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 342,6K

24u volumeUS$ 2,3K

POLYMARKET

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

6mnd

ARC-AGI

13%

FrontierMath

5.7%

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

48.1%

+3 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling6 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 9,6K

24u volumeUS$ 6,5K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

0.7%17d

June 30

+0.7%92%

June 19

-4.0%18%

June 12

-1.6%2%

+4 extra uitkomsten

79 • Hoge kwaliteitStrakke spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 301,9K

24u volumeUS$ 2,1K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

6mnd

Anthropic

67%

Google

+2.0%18%

OpenAI

-1.0%10%

+23 extra uitkomsten

80 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 7,7K

24u volumeUS$ 812,2

POLYMARKET

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

6mnd

Earbuds/Headphones

+2.5%32%

Clip-on device for clothing

+0.5%21%

Glasses

19%

+7 extra uitkomsten

68 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitGematigde spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 308K

24u volumeUS$ 1,2K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6.0%1j

Anthropic

-0.1%76%

OpenAI

+0.1%24%

79 • Hoge kwaliteitStrakke spreadGemiddelde liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 158,3K

24u volumeUS$ 4,9K

POLYMARKET

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

0.5%1mnd

Anthropic

+0.5%78%

Google

-3.0%7%

OpenAI

+0.5%6%

+23 extra uitkomsten

80 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeit

Totaal volumeUS$ 6,5K

24u volumeUS$ 1,4K

POLYMARKET

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19d

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

100%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

100%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

6.7%

+23 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling592 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 364,2K

24u volumeUS$ 350

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Kill everyone - Liron

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

8.8%

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

34.5%

+36 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling301 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 72K

24u volumeUS$ 25K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

1.7%6mnd

None in 2026

-1.0%70%

Anthropic

-2.0%21%

OpenAI

+1.7%6%

+29 extra uitkomsten

64 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 78,2K

24u volumeUS$ 436,6

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

2.5%17d

Anthropic

+0.5%86%

Google

-2.5%9%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.1%6mnd

ChatGPT

-1.1%15%

Claude

-0.6%67%

Gemini

-3.1%12%

+4 extra uitkomsten

80 • Hoge kwaliteitGematigde spreadHoge liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 54,1K

24u volumeUS$ 500,8

KALSHI

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

11.4%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

100%

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

45.3%

+148 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling187 voorspellersType: multiple choice

Totaal volumeUS$ 73K

24u volumeUS$ 351,6

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

6mnd

Google

56%

OpenAI

35%

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

12.0%6mnd

Anthropic

-0.1%61%

OpenAI

+0.1%39%

68 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitGematigde spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitHoge ambiguïteit

Totaal volumeUS$ 27,3K

24u volumeUS$ 2,2K

POLYMARKET

AI

Gerelateerde Crypto-assets

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

OpenAI IPO by...?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO by __?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Best AI model on June 13?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Best AI at the end of 2026?

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?