Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 70.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
31 aug 26, 05:41 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?
- The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free.
- I'll try to resolve in this spirit.
- Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count.
- Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 71% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Rogue AIs before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Rogue AIs before 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Rogue AIs before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?