Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 20 jul 2026, 17:30 UTC · beleid pm-quality-2
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBerkeley, CA 15.3%+0.2%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 dagen geleden
Verouderd24 apr 26, 18:301 okt 26, 0:00
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Berkeley, CA15%
Volumetrend
$5013 jul4d aan data20 jul
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Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "Menlo Park, CA" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "Stanford, CA" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "Berkeley, CA" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St.