Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 89.1% per 26 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) afgewikkeld?

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-3.5pt89.6%
• Anthropic+1.4pt9.4%
• OpenAI+0.1pt1%

+18 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 3,2 mln.

24u volume

€ 138,1K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-1.5pt27.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+4.5pt23.5%
• $1.5–$1.75T-1.9pt15.7%

+7 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.2pt56%
• Gemini-4.5pt30.9%
• ChatGPT-1.2pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 15,+8.5pt82%
• December 31,+5.0pt82%
• November 30,-3.5pt61%

+9 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202794%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt92%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt55.7%
• Google-5.5pt35%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6.2%

+12 extra uitkomsten

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• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
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