Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 89.1% per 27 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) afgewikkeld?

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

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POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt56%
• Google-2.5pt34%
• OpenAI+0.2pt6%

+12 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 2,9 mln.

24u volume

€ 160,1K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.6pt59.2%
• Gemini-2.1pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+0.3pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+5.6pt92.9%
• Anthropic-1.4pt7.1%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt95%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt

POLYMARKET

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

• December 31-6.5pt80%
• December 15-0.5pt75%
• November 30+3.0pt56%

+5 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.0pt94%
• December 15,-2.0pt92%
• November 30,-4.0pt89%

+15 extra uitkomsten

• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?