Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 19, 2026, 5:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Probability Timeline
Ed Miliband88.5%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next French Presidential Election
PolymarketBulgaria Presidential Election
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Serbia?
PolymarketWill Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.