PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92.1%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$62.5
Liquidity
$4.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 29, 26, 8:38 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
- Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
- A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $185.5K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $198K
- 24h Vol
- $182.1K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 92% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? resolve?
- Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.