What are the current odds for Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first??

Manifold Markets prices YouTube at 51.5% as of October 27, 2026.

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Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

MonthlySociety & Culture4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

YouTube 51.5%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Jul 28, 23, 5:35 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

I will use this wikipedia entry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users) to check (then make sure the sources are reliable).

I don't consider all of these social networks, but I want to have a simple method of verifying it.

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Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

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Paris curfew effectively lifted by which date?

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

Cambridge Dictionary Word of the Year 2026 contains?

Merriam-Webster Word of the Year 2026 contains?

Oxford Word of the Year 2026 contains?

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by which date?