Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42% or higher on Election Day?
Politics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight will be greater than or equal to 42.0% for the day of November 8, 2022.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
- Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- The resolution data for November 8 will be checked on November 9, 2022 (12 PM ET), and can only resolve after the check.
- If for any reason (e.g. error, no data taken, etc.) there is no data point for November 8 on the check time, the market will be checked 6 hours later, at 6 PM ET on November 9, 2022.
