Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No new company before 2028 · —
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Stored reference
No new company before 2028 26.8%Leader of 17 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
No new company before 2028 26.8%Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.1K
Liquidity
$32.8K
High liquidityOpen interest
$3.6K
Bid / Ask
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No new company before 2028Spread
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Comments
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Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingNov 12, 26, 10:45 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No new company before 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will Jensen Huang work next in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the first company at which Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within its corporate or governance structure between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- If Jensen Huang first publicly announces that he has founded, or will found, a new company within that period, this market will resolve to “the named outcome.”
- If that company is not listed as an outcome, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no such announcement is made by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “the named outcome.”
- Nonprofit organizations, universities, foundations, and government bodies will not qualify; however, a role at a nonprofit organization, foundation, or trust that controls or formally oversees a qualifying company (e.g., the OpenAI Foundation) will count toward that company.
- Roles Jensen Huang already held at market creation will not qualify.
- Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions, including membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company.