This market resolved: October 31
Resolved: Sep 4, 2026, 1:35 AM
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 4, 2026, 1:32 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
October 31 100%+58.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.3K
Liquidity
$3.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+54.5 pts
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingJul 31, 26, 10:45 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Probability Timeline
October 3192%
December 3199%
99%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered.
- Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify.
- Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify.
- An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered.
