Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffScience4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleAug 27, 26, 5:31 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, while Yuri Oganessian is alive, the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) or the IUPAC/IUPAP Joint Working Party (JWP) officially announces the validation and recognition of the discovery of any new chemical element with an atomic number of 119 or greater.
- The official IUPAC announcement of discovery validation (similar to the historical verifications for elements 113, 115, 117, and 118) will serve as the primary source of truth.
- The market resolves to NO if Yuri Oganessian passes away before such an official announcement of validation is publicly released by IUPAC.
- Informal or unverified claims of synthesis, papers published in peer-reviewed journals without joint IUPAC/IUPAP validation, or temporary placeholder systematic names do not suffice to trigger a "YES" resolution.
- Formal validation from IUPAC/IUPAP is required.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? resolve?
- Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria