Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.6%
Forecasters
151
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Jan 29, 23, 3:36 AM UTCFeb 1, 38, 8:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
- If at least 1 million people in the US experience some noticeable and significant disruption as a direct result of Y2k38, this resolves YES.
- The impact must be caused by the bug itself, not people preparing for or freaking out about the possibility.
- As an exception: If there's some highly disruptive last-minute "preparation" like "we're shutting down this entire system on December 30th because we didn't prepare it in time", I'll count that as having been caused by the bug.
- Bugs that occur more than a few days before or after January 19th do still count.
- The bug doesn't have to take place in the US, just the impact.