Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 25, 10:10 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, by 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on December 31, 2029, the U.S. FDA grants any marketing authorization for human use (approval, licensure, De Novo grant, or 510(k) clearance) to a product that fits this definition: a living, multicellular construct assembled ex vivo from animal or human cells, engineered to perform autonomous tasks in vivo (e.g., locomotion/drug delivery)—i.e., a “xenobot/biobot/anthrobot”-type product.
- Verification must appear in one of the FDA’s public databases: Drugs@FDA (NDAs/BLAs), Purple Book (licensed biologics), PMA, De Novo, or 510(k).
- Links: Drugs@FDA, Purple Book, PMA, De Novo, 510(k).
- (fda.gov, accessdata.fda.gov)
- EUAs, INDs/IDEs, in vitro–only/research-use-only authorizations, animal-use approvals, or products consisting solely of dissociated cells or live microbes (e.g., standard cellular therapies or live biotherapeutics) do NOT count.
