Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.5%
Forecasters
93
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Dec 31, 23, 1:07 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?
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PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if we get AGI before a human ventures again onto the Lunar surface.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
