Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 60%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 24, 9:49 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip
KalshiWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsIf Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if the company currently known as Virgin Galactic still exists in a recognisable form* on January 1st 2030
- Resolves NO otherwise, and may resolve earlier if it is sufficiently clear that it would resolve NO (eg bankruptcy with no signs of a possible revival)
- *To be considered a recognisable form:
- The company must be making progress towards (or currently operating) flights above 70km using an air launched spacecraft; and at least one of the following must still be true:
- 'Virgin' is still in its name (a brand name would count)
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $89.3K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-4.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.25–$2.5T+6.0pt24.8%
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.5pt21.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T18.8%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
- 24h Vol
- $17.4K
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
- IPOs before 2027?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? resolve?
- Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria