KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before April 2027 65%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 2:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GTA VI will have a mission involving the launch of a spaceship (probably belonging to a satirical billionaire)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiRules
If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip?
- Kalshi prices Before April 2027 at 65% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip resolve?
- When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Virgin Galactic launches next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip After issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.