Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?
Bonds & TreasuriesGeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 7:49 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026:
- PDVSA is removed from the OFAC SDN list, or a general license allows broad US business with PDVSA
- Executive order formally terminates or suspends E.O. 13850 (oil sector) or E.O. 13884 (government property blocking)
- US Treasury/State announces Venezuela oil sanctions are "lifted," "ended," or "terminated" (not just "modified" or "waived")
- If sanctions are lifted, resolves N/A. If sanctions are NOT lifted, resolves to this market:
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? resolve?
- Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026:
