Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge NOT being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?
EconomyOne-Off19y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Oct 26, 23, 2:13 AM UTCJan 1, 46, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1.
- I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole.
- If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment.
- If bridge construction is started (that market resolves YES) I will resolve N/A.
