Current community forecast
No 80.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 26, 11:26 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
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FutuurTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiRules
In Unfortunately, I Was Right, uploaded June 10, 2026, ThePrimeagen predicted that users would be able to donate part of their AI-token budgets to open-source projects so those projects could pay for AI-powered CI and other tools.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, at least one publicly available service allows an individual or organization to transfer or assign part of an existing, unused AI usage allowance or credit budget to an unrelated open-source project or maintainer.
- The recipient must be able to spend the donated allowance on AI inference, coding agents, automated review, CI, or similar AI services.
- Transferring part of an existing subscription or organizational AI-credit allowance
- Assigning unused credits to a verified open-source project
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027? resolve?
- Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In Unfortunately, I Was Right, uploaded June 10, 2026, ThePrimeagen predicted that users would be able to donate part of their AI-token budgets to open-source projects so those projects could pay for AI-powered CI and other tools.