Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomy1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 92.6%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 4, 25, 2:27 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
This question will resolve to "yes" if the "Civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted" reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for September 2026 is higher than the rate for either September 2022 or September 2024.
- Any adjustments that have been made to previous reports will be applied for purposes of resolving this question.
- https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
- (question closing date is the end of October because BLS reports come out the following month)
