Will Trump announce or order a new U.S. military strike against Iran before August 18th, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (95.4%)
Resolved: Aug 18, 2026, 12:27 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current community forecastNo 95.4%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 4:51 PMAug 17, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes4.6%
No95.4%
95.4%
4.6%
Rules
Resolve YES if, before 11.59 PM ET on August 17, 2026, Donald Trump or the U.S. administration publicity announces, confirms, or orders a new U.S. military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian military assets.
