Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.2%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingMay 16, 26, 7:03 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiOpenAI market share this week
KalshiRules
Mythos class AI has brought fears of a cyberpocalypse where AI systems hack the entire internet.
- This question attempts to quantify the danger.
- Resolves to CVEs as per https://nvd.nist.gov/vuln/search#/nvd/home?resultType=statistics
- To quantify "many more" I took the trend (not counting 2026 as it's not over yet) and tried to extrapolate where it would be in 2027.
- Given that in 2025 there was still no Mythos or GPT-5.5 I consider those numbers to be "untainted" by AI assistance.
- According to analyses by chatgpt-5.5-thinking (which didn't know what the numbers are referring to so as not to bias it's thinking) above 90k would be "suspiciously high", therefore, this resolves YES if NIST reports more than or equal to 90,000 CVEs in 2027.
