Current community forecast
Yes 55.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 23, 1:53 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves NO if unwanted (in according to company-creator policy) AI behavior is nonexistent by the end of 2027
- Resolves YES if unwanted (in according to company-creator policy) AI behavior is standing problem by the end of 2027
- Resolves YES if progress in AI development (transformer language models) halted i.e. no more state of the art versions released for public by the end of 2027
- Resolves YES if progress in AI development (transformer language models) halted i.e. AI labs abandoned strategy of maximizing amount of data and parameters of the model leaving possibility AGI on that part of a spectre largely unresearched ( unproofed) by the end of 2027
- Inspired by famous transcript:
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/16/technology/bing-chatbot-transcript.html
