Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.4%
Forecasters
128
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 14, 23, 1:07 PM UTCDec 30, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.
- This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies.
- Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.
- By Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-th)
