Will the US violate the sovereignty of Canada before January 20th 2029?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 25, 3:56 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to YES if by 2029 an entity under the command of the United States government intentionally violates the sovereign territory of Canada, no matter how severe the incursion - from an infringement of Canadian airspace, to a border skirmish, to a full scale invasion.
- Resolves to NO otherwise.
- Inflammatory, but legal, stunts such as the Secretary of Homeland Security shouting "51st state" across the border in an international library building are not actual violations of sovereign territory.
- Accidental incursions or operations on Canadian soil with the agreement of Canada do not count - this will be determined by whether the federal government of Canada accepts it as such.
- Civilian entities do not count either unless claimed by Canada to be acting under the direction of the United States.
