Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 25, 26, 5:00 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Not simply export controls, as happened with Fable.
- That order allowed the model to be run, just restricted access (even though in practice partial / limited access wasn't a viable option).
- This might be law, court order, or executive order.
- It might be permanent or temporary ("halt training until your sandbox passes an audit").
