Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?
US PoliticsOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 85.5%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 25, 7:52 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Biden has claimed that, in his view, the Equal Rights Amendment has already been ratified as the 28th Amendment:
- https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/01/17/politics/joe-biden-equal-right-amendment
- But the Archivist previously rejected this argument:
- https://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2025/nr25-004
- Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what will not count as the Supreme Court "deciding the status" of the Equal Rights Amendment for the purposes of this market:
- Denying a petition for a writ of certiorari.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $829.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $343.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt14%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Steel Across America?
- $LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028? resolve?
- Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Biden has claimed that, in his view, the Equal Rights Amendment has already been ratified as the 28th Amendment: