Current community forecast
Yes 94%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 26, 11:43 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the purported construction of a complex structure on $S^6$ by Levent Alpöge is verified and widely accepted by the mathematics community.
- "Verification and wide acceptance" is defined as meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- Journal Publication: The paper (or a revised version of it presenting the same fundamental construction) is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of high standing.
- Community Consensus: Leading experts reach a clear consensus that the construction is correct and free of fatal gaps.
- This market will resolve to NO if:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct? resolve?
- Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria