Current community forecast
No 84.5%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 27, 26, 1:34 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill "Deep learning as program synthesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]?
Manifold MarketsRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The paper that killed deep learning theory is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
