Current community forecast
Yes 89.5%
Forecasters
76
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 26, 1:01 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out.
- Flash/instant/mini doesn't count.
- Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding? resolve?
- Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out.