Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 25, 4:42 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:41 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The FBI has confirmed the alleged letter from Jeffrey Epstein to Larry Nassar is fake, as of December 23, 2025.
- This market resolves YES if any credible evidence emerges that contradicts the FBI's determination and proves the letter is authentic.
- This would require either: (1) a formal reversal of the FBI's conclusion with documented evidence, or (2) independent forensic analysis from a recognized authority that definitively establishes the letter's authenticity.
- The market resolves NO if the FBI's determination stands without credible contradiction.
- A letter appearing to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein to serial sex abuser Larry Nassar, a former Michigan State University doctor, was among documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice, with the letter submitted by the FBI for handwriting analysis on July 31, 2020, after Epstein died in August 2019.