Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.4%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 25, 4:46 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla merge with or be acquired by SpaceX before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla merge with any of xAI, X, SpaceX or Neuralink, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla merge with SpaceX by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWhen will SpaceX and Tesla merge?
Manifold MarketsWill McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Walter Isaacson believes it will happen:
- https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/tesla-xai-merger-elon-musk-walter-isaacson/
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If xAI merges with SpaceX first, this market will still resolve YES if the resulting entity (SpaceX/xAI) subsequently merges with Tesla by the end of 2027.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Walter Isaacson believes it will happen: