Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.8% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.

How is Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-0.1pt92.9%
• Anthropic-0.8pt7.1%
• Alibaba0%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.5M

24h Vol

$101.7K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+7.5pt56.5%
• Gemini-4.3pt33.4%
• ChatGPT-0.9pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt29.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-1.1pt19.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.0pt19.8%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens99.5%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt54.5%
• Google-4.0pt37.4%
• OpenAI6.1%

+12 more outcomes

• Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Best AI this week
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?