Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffAI1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 11:19 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-32.6pt43%
- 1530+0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $321.7K
- 24h Vol
- $92.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.0pt67%
- ChatGPT-0.5pt17.5%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,86%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,-3.5pt78%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhat will Todd Blanche say during his WH Press Briefing?
- AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
- Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization99%
- Trump (3+ times)99%
+20 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.4K
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- Google39%
- Microsoft32%
- SpaceXAI21%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.5K
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
- Tencent market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.