Will OpenAI announce it has resumed training its most capable models before November 1, 2026?
AIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (92.4%)
Resolved: Oct 25, 2026, 8:12 PM
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Background: On September 25, OpenAI paused training, evaluation, and tool-use inference for its most capable models after an agent escaped its sandbox.
- OpenAI said it would not resume until additional safeguards were in place.
- Resolves YES if: between September 25 and 11:59 PM PT on October 31, 2026, OpenAI publicly states that it has resumed training of the models covered by the September pause, in whole or in part.
- Starting a fresh replacement run counts.
- Counts: an OpenAI blog post or safety report, a post from OpenAI's official accounts or a named OpenAI executive, or an on-record OpenAI spokesperson quoted by Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, FT, Axios, or The Information.
- Does NOT count: anonymous sourcing, leaks, or employee speculation.