Will Norway announce a referendum about joining EU during Trumps Second Term (2025–2029)?
Trade PolicyOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsEuropeUS PoliticsPolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91%
No 91%Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 25, 8:56 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background Norway has held two referendums on EU membership (1972 and 1994), both resulting in rejection.
- While Norway maintains close ties with the EU through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement, recent polls show increasing support for EU membership, with 35.3% in favor according to recent surveys.
- This can however change quickly if e.g. Norway falls in the middle of a trade war or geographical tension between the EU and the US.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Norway's government officially announces a referendum on EU membership between January 20, 2025 (the start of what would have been Trump's second term) and January 20, 2029 (the end of what would have been Trump's second term).
- The market will resolve NO if no such announcement is made during this period.
- For clarity:
