Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingJul 18, 26, 2:27 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2100 (12:00 AM UTC), the prediction market platform Manifold (currently located at manifold.markets) permanently shuts down.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.
- "Permanently shut down" is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- The platform's parent company (Manifold Markets, Inc. or its corporate successor) formally dissolves, goes bankrupt, or liquidates, and the prediction market platform ceases operations with no successor platform taking its place.
- The platform's web domain and services remain entirely offline or non-functional for a continuous period of at least 12 consecutive months, with no official public statement from the operators indicating an intent to resume service.
