Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNetanyahu comes to NYC in 2026, is NOT arrested there 93.2%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 4:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:24 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
PolymarketRules
De facto includes UN HQ, as to my understanding it is not possible to enter it without first entering NYC.
- If Netanyahu resorts to some sort of helicopter landing on top of the UN HQ compound or something, then idk I'll probably have to resolve N/A. I'll interpret arrest fairly broadly.
- For example, if Netanyahu is detained by NYC officials in any capacity, even if he is then immediately released into federal custody or something, that will still resolve.
