Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
AIOne-Off17yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87.2%
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24
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 25, 22, 9:09 PM UTCJan 1, 44, 8:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4.
- It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market.
- The full prediction is:
- When AGI (artificial intelligence) comes, large language models like GPT-4 may be seen in hindsight as part of the eventual solution, but only as part of the solution. “Scaling” alone—building bigger and models until they absorb the entire internet — will prove useful, but only to a point.
- Trustworthy, general artificial intelligence, aligned with human values, will come, when it does, from systems that are more structured, with more built-in knowledge, and will incorporate at least some degree of explicit tools for reasoning and planning, as well as explicit it knowledge, that are lacking in systems like GPT.
- Within a decade, maybe much less, the focus of AI will move from a pure focus on scaling large language models to a focus on integrating them with a wide range of other techniques.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) resolve?
- Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2044.
- How is Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4.