What are the current odds for Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire??

Manifold Markets prices No at 81.4% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire? resolve?

Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: See: @/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Jul 23, 26, 2:27 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 3:24 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

See: @/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don

Resolves whenever that market resolves.
If it gets extended, so will this market.
If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for at least 1 minute, this resolves YES.
If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, it will resolve to whatever percentage of a minute the curtain was on fire for (e.g. 30 seconds = 50%).
If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, but does not know/did not record how long, it will resolve NO.