What are the current odds for Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58.5% as of October 27, 2026.

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

One-OffAI Tech13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 58.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 19 minutes ago

Nov 19, 24, 8:35 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market will resolve to determine if we develop an artificial general intelligence (AGI) before desktop search becomes good.

I'll use common sense definitions for “Good Desktop Search” and AGI.
In the case they happen pretty much at the same time, the market will be decided according to the following rules:
If AGI was necessary to develop good desktop search, the market will resolve to yes.
If good desktop search becomes available on Mac OS or Windows and does not use AGI as a component or substantial subsystem, the market will resolve to no.
The end date is set for January 1st, 2040. as a daily user of AI products and terrible desktop search I'll keep my eye on this one personally